Everything you need to know about Finland's NATO move.

On January 15, 2022, NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen said an attack on Ukraine "would provoke a discussion in Finland and Sweden about Nato membership". Contradicting this, Finnish Foreign Minister Pekka Havisto said that there was no such plans at that point. However today, exactly four months later, the President and Prime Minister of Finland have announced at a joint press conference that Finland will join NATO. In today's article, we are in an attempt to explain the global geopolitical conflict and possible confrontation between Russia and its neighboring states along with NATO.

Finland, which has so far established itself as a distinctive pillar of a peaceful and non-aligned movement since World War II, has decided to join the US-led military bloc, known as the enemy of its longest-bordering country. This policy shift illustrates the current world situation. In the current situation, the geo-political pressure has increased so much that no country can remain non-aligned. Conflicts between the powerful blocs have escalated to the point where “either you are on our side, if not you are our enemy”has become the new normal. Due to this level of open confrontation, even a non-aligned nation like Finland is forced to join a military bloc.

According to Ahti Tolvanen, secretary of the Finnish Foreign Scholars' Forum, Finland, which has always maintained its identity as a non-aligned country, after meeting with  pro-NATO visitors, Finland is abandoning its old legacy.

Britain’s Foreign Secretary, Liz Truss at Mansion House in the City of London on April 28 made the following statement: “I mean that Nato must have a global outlook, ready to tackle global threats,” she said. “We need to pre-empt threats in the Indo-Pacific, working with allies like Japan and Australia to ensure that the Pacific is protected.”

Well, with the fact that the policy of non-alignment has become inappropriate and impractical in the present context. And all the powers are using their ‘all in ‘ efforts in expanding their alliance. Let's move on to Russia's forward moves on Ukraine and Finland.

Russia's dispute with Ukraine has been raging for some time now, but it has been escalating since 2014. After the 2014 Ukraine conflict, Russia annexed Ukraine's Crimea. Due to that attack, it was pretty natural that Ukrainian would develop hatred towards Russia and the Russian-speaking people in Ukraine .That hatred within Ukraine has led to calls for secession in the Russian-speaking Donbass region of Ukraine. Russia began raising the issue after Russian-speaking Ukrainian began to plead with Russia to defend them against the Ukrainian rage. This led to a war, which began shortly after Russia sent its peacekeepers to Donetsk and Luhansk, Ukraine, on February 21, 2022, recognizing them as independent nations, and has not stopped since then. Russia has described it as a military operation rather than a war, while Ukraine and the West have viewed it as a war.

Russia has claimed that Ukraine has set up a laboratory where it has been working upon biological and chemical weapons in collaboration with the United States. However, the United States had denied the allegations in a press statement . Nonetheless, the United Nations urged for the immediate destruction of harmful pathogens in Ukraine's laboratories. This makes few concern whether to believe The Russian’s allegation or American press statement. 

Another interesting fact is that the newly formed two nations, where Russia sent peacekeeping forces, are full of two important mineral deposits. Coal and lithium. These two minerals are used in various technological activities ranging from energy trading to battery manufacturing in the present world. These minerals provide a basis for speculation over who will consume the region's mineral wealth, as the whole world has seen many wars in the Middle East regarding  the control of oil mines. 

Now let's look at what steps Russia will take towards Finland. Finland and Russia were at war over World War II. But after that war, relations between Russia and Finland have always been cordial without any conflicts even during the cold war. The fact that Putin and Trump chose Helsinki, the capital of Finland, for their meeting on July 16, 2018, also confirms Russia's view of Finland as a trustworthy neighbor. With this fact, it can be assumed that Russia does not have the same view on Finland and Ukraine. Moreover, Finland has not conspired against the Russian-speaking or Russia as well as there have never been any allegations made from the Russian side against Finland in any matter. But is Finland really safe, as it has already decided to join NATO? Or will Russia take some sort of military action? as it has repeatedly warned that NATO’s expansion near its border means encircling Russia this will compel Russia to retaliate. Here is an attempt to analyze it a little bit.

At present, there is a war of ego between NATO and Russia. One is urging people to stay out of its vicinity while the other is pursuing a policy of expanding as much as possible.

Noam Chomsky, an American scholar, has repeatedly said that the United States creates war in the name of terror. Few rumors are also well established that the US has resorted to war and sold its arms to boost the economy destroyed by the Corona pandemic. Ukraine's President Zelensky has also accused Ukraine of being left alone in the war by Western nations. He asserted, “Sometimes we receive weapons directly, but you have to understand that everything has its price”. This means that Nato and other western countries are selling arms to Ukraine. Some questions suggest that the future of Ukraine is very bleak.  When will war-torn Ukraine pay the price of arms? All the facts will be revealed on the day when countries will occupy the mineral deposits and other resources of Ukraine via mining companies. 

Despite UN efforts to stop the war, Russia has vetoed UN resolutions. Is it a helpless situation where no power in the world can play a proper role in ending this war? Or are the powerful weapon manufacturers in search of a battlefield for demonstration of weapons for the arms trade? This question is also a crucial angle to think of.

What if! In this war of ego, a non aligned country for the last 8 decades is being used to challenge Russia? There have been a few strange behaviors from the US side,  which raises questions of doubt in the allies. The withdrawal of US armies from Afghanistan without any information and discussion with its dependent allies is still blasphemous.The notorious oil trade with Russia by urging Europe to stop purchasing Russian oil is hilarious as well as serious at the same time compelling to question US unstable policy. 

This could be the reason that Finland and Sweden are ready to join NATO after the British Prime Minister visited Finland and Sweden and signed an assurance military pact, which was followed by a high-level meeting between the United Kingdom and the United States on the 1st of May. 

A serious concern to the world is what if  Russia takes some steps to save its ego and to show the world that Russia never backs off the words it states? If Russia does take action, what will happen next?

Russia is currently fighting alone against NATO weapons. In the meantime Russia is saving its weapons for future needs. This is a war strategy. Russia estimates that if all powerful, expensive and secret weapons are used in Ukraine, Russia's power would be calculated by the enemy and it may run out of weapons in a  possible war with NATO in the future. Last week, the United States and Estonian intelligence announced that Russia is planning a long war.

However, in the present scenario it would be difficult for Russia to intervene in Ukraine and Finland at the same time. Russia's Moskva warship sank at sea with the help of new weapons and technology purchased by Ukraine. Russia was quite upset and threatened that it might start a space war to wipe out the internet provider, Starlink satellites with whose help moskova was attacked.  Ukraine being backed by Nato’s weapons and technology, it would be a mistake for Russia to start a war against Finland and Sweden without managing the territory it occupied by encircling Ukraine. As Finland is also a member of the European Union, an attack on Finland would be tantamount to waging war against the whole of the European Union in accordance with the provisions of Article 42 (7) of the European Union's Mutual Defense Act. This does not necessarily mean that Russia will take Nato’s move right next to its door that easily.

On May 14, Finnish President Niinisö had a telephone conversation with Putin, initiated by Finland, shortly after the decision was made to enter NATO. It's obvious that Finland is not willing to provoke Russia. The conversation was direct and straight-forward and it was conducted without aggravation. Avoiding tensions was considered important”, President Niinistö said.  In a press conference held after the decision, on may 15, Niinistö mentioned that Putin did not make any objection to the decision made by Finland to join NATO.

This indicates that Russia has not any aggressive intention of invading Finland right away. Nevertheless, Russia's previous remarks of ‘retaliation’ cannot be left unnoticed. If Russia takes this move as a provocation then it will move towards Finland only after it gains full control on Ukraine followed by the disarmament of Ukraine. 

Finland is a country close to the North Pole, where temperatures are so cold that Russia might be preparing for the winter operation, as it was the cold that helped Russia in the second world war. 

The possibility of the weapon manufacturer's warlord's nuclear test could also be the next plan in the cold areas by engaging the north pole into nuclear war?? This will become clear in the coming days.

But in any case, we pray for world peace. And remind the fact, that the neighbors cannot be changed, to the state head of Finland and Russia and wishing them to make decisions showing the ability and discretion to lead the world.